bitcoin plunge warning: possible fall to $95,000?
Bitcoin Faces Potential Bearish Scenario and Distribution Phase
Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, is showing signs of weakness as it struggles to maintain its position above its previous all-time highs. This weakness, combined with key technical and macroeconomic factors, has led experts to warn of a possible distribution phase, often a sign of a reversal in bullish trends.
- Technical Indicators and Options Positioning
Bitcoin's recent correction pressure after hitting all-time highs around $114,000–$116,000 indicates a short-term fatigue. Key support levels between $110,000 and $116,000 are crucial, and a break below these could trigger deeper corrections towards $108,000 and even psychological levels near $100,000.
The August 22, 2025 $3.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry reveals a bearish skew, with a put-to-call ratio at 1.31 and a max pain price around $118,000. This suggests traders are hedging for downside risk near this level, creating a potential magnetic zone for price action or selling pressure if it fails to break above.
- Macroeconomic Factors
The upcoming US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is a significant catalyst for potential volatility and directional change. A higher-than-expected CPI could reinforce the Federal Reserve’s hawkish stance, potentially dampening Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge if rates stay elevated. Conversely, a softer CPI might reduce rate hike fears and support a short-term rebound in risk assets like Bitcoin, but current market positioning suggests caution.
Trade policies, such as import tariffs, alongside the Fed’s rate freeze in the range 4.25%–4.5%, add complexity by creating conflicting inflation and growth pressures that influence Bitcoin’s behavior. The Jackson Hole event is another potential catalyst for change in Fed policy and market direction.
- Advice for Traders
Given the bearish skew and volatility risks around CPI releases and options expiry, traders are advised to exercise caution with long positions. Tight stop-loss orders should be considered to limit downside. Preparation to sell into strength during rallies is also suggested, as profit-taking and distribution phases are indicated by volume and options data.
Key support levels around $110,000–$112,000 should be monitored closely, as breaks below may signal further downside targets near $108,000 or $100,000 psychological support. Traders should also stay alert to macroeconomic events, especially the CPI report and Fed communications, which can significantly alter Bitcoin’s short-term trajectory.
In summary, the current state of Bitcoin suggests a possible reversal in its bullish trends. Traders should be prepared for possible downside corrections while managing risk amid an inflection point in market dynamics. The $95,000 zone, a key level not seen since May, is a potential target for a pullback period. The Wyckoff analysis, which calls for vigilance in the face of a possible bearish scenario, supports this view.
- In the current scenario, the upcoming distribution phase in Bitcoin, the world's largest cryptocurrency, might prompt investors to reassess their strategies, especially in the realm of technology-driven investments.
- A potential bearish skew in options positioning, as observed in the August 22, 2025 $3.8 billion Bitcoin options expiry, highlights the role of technology and advanced financial instruments in shaping the market's trajectory.
