Bitcoin proponent PlanB reaffirms $400,000 prediction, analysts advocate prudence
Hell yeah, Bitcoin Baby! PlanB's Prediction Crankin' It Up To $400k
Bitcoin's skidin' past a cool $104,000, and PlanB - the crypto-head behind the Stock-to-Flow model - thinks we're just gettin' started. In a fresh vid he drops, this sneaky analyst shows us how the next stop might be a whopping $400k!
PlanB's no stranger to Bitcoin's rally. He noticed the market bounced back real nice after that late March dip when Bitcoin was mullin' around $82,000. By the end of April, it climbed up to $94,000, and now, it's chillin' at that $104k mark. He ain't just seein' a rebound, he declares the bull market's back!
He's still holdin' onto his long-term model, claimin' the S2F average for the 2024-2028 halving cycle is a hella high $500k. Sounds absurd, right? But PlanB don't break a sweat, cuz he's sayin' we're only "one year into the cycle, with three years to go."
So why the optimism?
PlanB leans heavy on Bitcoin's scarcity, pointin' out it's "twice as scarce as gold" but only valued about tenth of it. That's some major undervaluation, buddy! And he's got a chart to back it up, showin' how his market cycle model didn't give any yellows when Bitcoin was at $82,000, a phase usually before a bear market. Instead, he saw red signals, callin' it a long, flat bull market.
PlanB also brought up RSI, or Relative Strength Index. Right now, he states, it's at 66, which is above average and risin' high again. He's sayin' we might see RSI levels above 80 in the next few months, just like back in those 2021, 2020, 2017, and 2013 bull markets. If we're averagin' $100k now, he figures that'd take us right into the $400k zone.
Some on board, but with caution
Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, agreed that PlanB's $400k Bitcoin forecast leans on two pillars: a multi-year 'four-phase' cycle and the S2F framework. He notes that the timeline lines up with past cycles but warns that macro and market-structure changes add some serious uncertainty.
"Unlike prior cycles, institutional adoption, regulated derivatives, and on-chain analytics now smooth volatility and may extend cycles rather than compress 'em. But watch out, there's potential Fed rate pivots and geopolitical flare-ups. They could abruptly cut the cycle short. Also, this greater correlation to equities means Bitcoin may no longer be such a standalone 'digital gold' store of value."
Usi Zade also pointed out the move to $104,000 might not be all organic, as April's cooler inflation and Fed's dovish tones may have caused a broad "risk-on" rebound.
He's feelin' the $110k-$115k level is crucially important, sayin' if we fail there, we could see a rapid retracement toward $88k-$92k. Regarding the $400k target, Usi Zade's more cautious, explainin' that while past halvings cut new supply and S2F lined up with prices in the past, the 2021 bull market broke the model's predictive streak.
'"So, S2F retains some heuristic value but no longer commands unqualified trust. Treat its $400k figure as a broad 'upper-bound scenario' rather than a high-confidence price projection."
Usi Zade
Usi Zade told crypto news that the $400,000 S2F target now sits more as an "aspirational upper bound" than a high-confidence price projection.
"Everybody's in profit"
Another bullish signal for PlanB: rising realized prices. He's happy that the 5-month realized price for short-term buyers is $92,000, and Bitcoin's currently flyin' above it.
"That's how we like it! That's also a sign of a bull market. Everybody's in profit. There ain't much pain in the market. Let's see what that brings!"
PlanB
Even that 200-week moving average - a key long-term support - is growin', according to PlanB. As of press time, it's around $47,000. He sees the growing gap between that and price as more fuel for his bullish thesis.
Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, agrees with PlanB about the mechanics, but she ain't bought into the pace just yet. Yes, Bitcoin can post massive monthly gains, but "not without significant retail participation fuelin' the rallies," she points out. Currently, she says, retail hasn't shown up.
"PlanB's $400,000 prediction aligns with historical patterns of exponential price moves during past bull markets. But remember, this ain't a dice roll, investor. Be darn sure to keep a diversified view, balancin' on-chain data with macro trends, sentiment analysis, and risk management."
Tracy Jin
She also mentioned that while 40% monthly returns are possible, sustaining that level of momentum without widespread retail enthusiasm is unlikely. Jin refers to this market as "in transition," explainin' further that it ain't fully bearish, but neither is it yet in a full-blown retail-driven rally. Institutional players are here for sure, she adds, and regulations have tightened up.
"While 40% monthly returns aren't impossible, it'd take favorable macro conditions, institutional flows, and a strong narrative to generate market-wide conviction."
Tracy Jin
Analysts at crypto payment gateway B2BINPAY echoed some of the optimism but warned against jumpin' to conclusions. If Bitcoin starts fallin' below the $93k level and consolidates, they ain't expectin' to see a quick move toward a new all-time high. Instead, they think the price might slide back into the $88k-$86k range. But if Bitcoin's got that champion strength, they argue, we might look at the next target zones - anywhere between $124k and $134k.
Addressin' Bitcoin dominance, the analysts say they consider it as a "very positive sign for altcoins," addin' that on the daily chart, we can clearly see a break of the uptrend line that had held since Dec. 3, 2024, through May 9, 2025.
"That said, dominance's still at a relatively high level, and there's a lot of liquidity built up below, mostly compressed. And compressed liquidity tends to be released quickly. So, there's a good chance we'll see a fast move down to around 54% dominance, possibly sooner than expected. If that happens, altcoins might surprise us in a big way."
PlanB himself admits that some models are wrong, others are useful. But today's market clearly ain't about just charts and halvings. Central banks, global politics, and crypto's correlation with broader markets all play a part. Keepin' that in mind, B2BINPAY analysts ain't expectin' to see a sudden surge in volatility in the short-term as the summer rolls around, notin' that "summer tends to be a quiet season in the crypto market."
So, buckle up, folks! We might be in for one wild ride with Bitcoin! Let the games begin!
- PlanB, analyzing the growing Bitcoin price, believes it might soar to an astonishing $400k, given the digital currency's scarcity and undervaluation compared to gold.
- Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, agrees with PlanB's $400k forecast but highlights the uncertainty due to changes in institutional adoption, regulations, and geopolitical factors.
- Tracy Jin, COO of MEXC, supports PlanB's view on the mechanics of Bitcoin's price increase but remains cautious about the pace and extent of retail involvement.
- Analysts at B2BINPAY predict a possible fall in Bitcoin's price if it breaches the $93k level, but a strong Bitcoin could take the price to targets between $124k and $134k.
- They also acknowledge that a decrease in Bitcoin dominance could lead to surprising growth in altcoins, as seen by the break of the uptrend line on the daily chart.
- Despite the complexity of the market influenced by central banks, global politics, and crypto's correlation with broader markets, PlanB acknowledges that models like his have their limitations and that the market transcends simple chart analysis and halvings.
