Cattle Prices Increase Amidst Beef Market Boom
As of late August 2025, the market for Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures is experiencing a significant rally, driven by tight cattle supply, robust demand, and packer short-buying, pushing prices to near or new all-time highs.
Live Cattle Futures
The August, September, and October 2025 Live Cattle futures have seen notable gains. The October 2025 Live Cattle futures reached new all-time highs with a significant weekly gain of about $6.575 per hundredweight before some volatility caused a pullback midweek but a modest recovery by Friday. Daily prices for Live Cattle hover around 238-239 cents per pound, with a month-to-month price increase of approximately 6% and a year-on-year increase of about 31%.
On August 20, October Live Cattle futures closed at 231.35 cents per pound, up marginally by 0.175 cents with continued upward momentum. The August contract, just before expiration at the end of August, is trading slightly below the cash market but narrowing that discount, closing around 233.075 cents.
Feeder Cattle Futures
Feeder Cattle futures have also seen strong gains, particularly the September 2025 contract, which climbed to 352.425 cents per pound by August 20 after an early-week surge of more than $6. The price action is influenced by strong beef prices, tight supply, and market factors such as export prospects improved by the US-China tariff truce.
Drivers and Analysis
Tight cattle supply remains a key factor, exacerbated by reduced slaughter rates and closed US-Mexico border to cattle imports, limiting available livestock. Strong wholesale beef prices are maintaining upward pressure, with boxed beef cutout values reaching near-record highs above $380 per hundredweight for choice beef and increasing select beef prices.
Demand is supported by resilient consumer buying even at high beef prices and hopes of expanded export opportunities, particularly eased tensions with China providing potential market growth. Recent price volatility includes some profit-taking and corrections from an extremely overbought market state seen earlier this month. Managed money has slightly reduced net long positions in both Live and Feeder Cattle futures, indicating cautious positioning despite strong demand fundamentals.
In summary, the Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures for August, September, and October 2025 contracts are currently in a strong upward trend supported by tight supply and strong demand. However, short-term volatility and profit-taking phases have created some pullbacks amid record-high price levels. The market outlook remains bullish but sensitive to supply disruptions, export developments, and seasonal slaughter changes.
- Live cattle futures posted gains of $2.40 to $2.95 on Tuesday, closing out the session.
- USDA Wholesale Boxed Beef prices for Choice boxes were up $9.06 at $390.58, while Select was $6.03 higher to $365.64.
- Preliminary open interest for feeder cattle futures was up 559 contracts.
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[1] Source: CME Group [2] Source: USDA [3] Source: DTN [4] Source: USDA AMS [5] Source: USDA FAS
The strong rally in the Live Cattle futures market is not only limited to the Live Cattle, as Feeder Cattle futures have also seen significant gains, reflecting the broader influence of technology such as data analysis and trading platforms on commodity markets.
The ongoing bullish trend in Live Cattle and Feeder Cattle futures, despite short-term volatility, underscores the increasing role of technology in agricultural commodity trading, facilitating more efficient price discovery and market participation.
