Cryptocurrency Update: Experts Point Towards a Potential Bitcoin Value of $200K as ETF Influence Grows and Trump Issues Directive on Cryptocurrencies.
In a significant move for the cryptocurrency market, Bitcoin and other digital assets are set to be included in American 401(k) retirement accounts, potentially injecting up to $122 billion into the market. This shift, driven by recent regulatory changes and executive orders, is expected to broaden Bitcoin's investor base and contribute to price growth.
The U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) rescinded its 2022 guidance that urged "extreme care" with cryptocurrencies in 401(k) plans, instead applying a neutral, context-specific fiduciary standard. This means plan fiduciaries can now evaluate crypto investments prudently, similar to any other asset class, effectively opening the door for crypto inclusion in retirement plans[1].
In August 2025, President Trump signed an executive order directing federal agencies to facilitate access to alternative investments, such as cryptocurrencies, in 401(k) accounts. This order aims to democratize access to investment options that historically have been available mostly to wealthy or institutional investors, fostering diversification and potentially higher returns for ordinary retirement savers[2][4].
With federal approval and major financial firms offering Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), crypto ownership has become much easier and safer to integrate into traditional portfolios. This institutional backing and broader retail access through 401(k) plans may drive widespread investor participation and increase demand for Bitcoin[3].
As millions of Americans gain the ability to allocate part of their retirement savings to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies, this inflow of capital could help drive Bitcoin’s price higher over time, assuming consistent or increased demand and limited supply, which is typical for Bitcoin's market mechanics.
However, fiduciaries must carefully assess the volatility, custody issues, and illiquidity risks of crypto and other alternative assets before incorporating them into plans. This prudent evaluation is intended to protect investors’ retirement assets while allowing diversified investment choices[1][4].
The primary gateway for 401(k) allocation is expected to be Bitcoin ETFs. Market observers feel that this policy support and market access will increase the chances of Bitcoin ending the year at $200,000 or more. Financial advisors' current recommendations of up to 3 percent Bitcoin exposure in retirement portfolios could result in total inflows surpassing initial estimates[5].
Major players in the cryptocurrency industry, such as BlackRock and Fidelity, are expected to benefit from increased inflows. For instance, BlackRock, which already runs the largest Bitcoin ETF with the most assets under management, and Fidelity, which has $22.4 billion in its Bitcoin portfolio, are poised to reap the benefits of this regulatory shift[6].
Andre Dragosch, the Head of European Research at Bitwise, believes that the effects of retirement plan access could be more profound than the spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. The future performance of cryptocurrency prices will be determined by macroeconomic changes, clarity in regulation, and investors' attitudes[7].
In conclusion, allowing Bitcoin in 401(k)s broadens its investor base to include millions of American workers, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s adoption and contributing to upward price pressure through new, substantial institutional and retail inflows. This regulatory shift signals a growing acceptance of crypto as a mainstream asset class in retirement planning[1][2][3][4][5].
[1] - https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/12/us-department-of-labor-rescinds-cryptocurrency-guidance-for-401ks.html [2] - https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/presidential-actions/2025/08/07/executive-order-on-encouraging-competition-in-the-american-economy/ [3] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-17/bitcoin-etf-sales-are-booming-but-will-that-last [4] - https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/cryptocurrency-401k.asp [5] - https://www.barrons.com/articles/bitcoin-401k-plan-51643173267 [6] - https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/blackrock-fidelity-set-benefit-from-crypto-401k-boom-2025-10-15/ [7] - https://www.coindesk.com/news/2025/10/20/bitwise-head-of-european-research-says-crypto-401ks-could-have-profound-impact/
