EssenceMediacom's Forecast for 2024 Media Landscape
In January 2024, EssenceMediacom, a media agency, predicted eight events that would shape the industry in the following year. The agency's executive team recently commented on the accuracy of their predictions.
Executives Richard Kirk, Andrew Monks, and James Parnum discuss their successes and missteps in a conversation with our website.
YouTube Overtakes Netflix on TV
Robyn Sumners, director, and Andrew Monks, partner, suggested that YouTube would surpass Netflix in terms of daily viewing on TV by December 2024. There is disagreement within the team regarding this prediction. While Monks claims that Netflix remains the leader in TV viewing, Kirk contends that the gap is within statistical variance, making the platforms virtually even.
For much of the year, it appeared that YouTube would surpass Netflix. However, in August, Netflix's viewership started to improve, and as of December 8, its viewing time had increased by 8% year-over-year. Despite this, the data still shows a consistent upward trend, and the switch in leadership is expected to happen before February 2025, according to Monks.
Monks expressed enthusiasm for the evolution of television, as he believes it is still the most significant platform for brand building. EssenceMediacom rates this prediction a 9 out of 10.
New York Times vs OpenAI
Geoff de Burca, joint chief strategy officer, predicted that The New York Times would win its case against OpenAI. This prediction came to fruition as the lawsuit was already underway by the end of 2023, so the team adjusted their forecast to predict the outcome of the case.
As of now, it is too early to determine the winner, with Parnum acknowledging that it is still way too early to make a definitive call. EssenceMediacom gives this prediction a tentative 5 out of 10.
Twitter and Elon Musk
Richard Kirk, joint CSO, anticipated that Twitter would censor Elon Musk to save itself, but neither scenario occurred. Kirk suggests that the prediction may have been proven right, as it indicated a possible importance of Twitter beyond its revenue generation for Musk. EssenceMediacom scores this prediction a 3 out of 10.
Digital Media Measurability
Oliver Betts, data practice head of growth, predicted that digital media would become less consistently measurable. However, Google's decision to abandon the phase-out of third-party cookies in its Chrome browser and replace it with an undefined mechanism for user consent undermined this prediction. Despite this, media brands have begun advocating for media mix modeling (MMM), which favors larger, more public formats, leading EssenceMediacom to revise their score to a 7 out of 10.
UK Retail Media Trade Body
Claudia Ziegenbein and Nick Baldwin, heads of search and ecommerce practice, forecasted the formation of a UK retail media trade body without Amazon's participation. Although no such body has been established, the Incorporated Society of British Advertisers (Isba) has been working to unify retail media partners and implement standard practices with the Responsible Retail Media Framework. EssenceMediacom rates this prediction a 3 out of 10.
AI-Driven Savings
Tom Curtis, ECD, predicted that AI would enable marketers to save millions through streamlined production processes, which could then be reinvested in distribution. This trend has indeed taken hold across many lower-funnel platforms. ITV and Coca-Cola are examples of brands adopting AI-assisted production processes, reducing overall costs at both ends of the advertising funnel. EssenceMediacom awards this prediction a 7 out of 10.
The 2024 General Election
Lucy McMullin, strategy partner, predicted that the 2024 UK General Election would become known as the "TikTok Election" due to the effectiveness of influencers on the platform. While TikTok may not have directly impacted the election's outcome, Nigel Farage saw substantial growth on the platform, and Reform, his party, leads the Tories for every demographic under 65. EssenceMediacom judges this prediction a 6 out of 10.
Advertiser-Funded Programming
Claire Prince, head of branded entertainment, forecasted a significant increase in advertiser-funded programming in 2024. ITV, a major broadcaster, reported more discussions about advertiser-funded programming than ever before, commissioning 15 such projects in 2024, up from just three in 2023. EssenceMediacom gives this prediction a 10 out of 10.
By no means did EssenceMediacom demonstrate super-forecaster levels of accuracy, but Parnum notes that if they had gotten all the predictions correct, they might not have been predicting hard enough.
- Robyn Sumners and Andrew Monks, directors at EssenceMediacom, foretold that YouTube would surpass Netflix in terms of daily viewing on TV by December 2024, a prediction that is still under debate within the team.
- Geoff de Burca, joint chief strategy officer, predicted that The New York Times would win its case against OpenAI, a prediction that is yet to be definitively resolved.
- Richard Kirk, joint CSO of EssenceMediacom, anticipated that Twitter would censor Elon Musk to save itself, a prediction that did not materialize as expected.
- Oliver Betts, data practice head of growth at EssenceMediacom, predicted that digital media would become less consistently measurable, but Google's decision to abandon the phase-out of third-party cookies undermined this prediction.
- Claudia Ziegenbein and Nick Baldwin, heads of search and ecommerce practice at EssenceMediacom, forecasted the formation of a UK retail media trade body without Amazon's participation, a prediction that has not been realized as of yet. However, the Incorporated Society of British Advertisers (Isba) has been working to unify retail media partners.
