Large Amount of Bitcoin Wallets Shed Crypto Assets, Yet Major Players Maintain Optimism - Reasons
Redefined and Restructured
Title: Whales Dive In While Retail Bails Out: Bitcoin's Next Big Leap?
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Bitcoin (BTC) is experiencing a shift as large holders, commonly known as whales, accumulate 81,338 BTC in the past six weeks, boosting their holdings by 0.61%, while smaller wallets shed 0.60% of their total assets.
As of writing, BTC trades at $96,678.63, marking a 2.28% surge in the last 24 hours. The focus now lies on the critical support level at $93,198, with a potential collapse leading to $83,444 as the next watch-out point.
Whales Tango While Retail Chill Out
Historically, this trend of whales accumulating during retail panic has served as a precursor for price rallies, especially when market turbulence creates a temporary selling frenzy. As a consequence, the current phase could be a strategic accumulation zone.
Santiment's data reveals that exchange flows demonstrate strong conviction, with outflows soaring by 182.36% and inflows growing by just 26.15% within the past seven days, indicating that more investors are transferring BTC off exchanges for long-term storage. This trend suggests decreasing near-term selling pressure, lending weight to the bullish case.
Room to Grow for BTC: MVRV Ratio Check
At present, Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score is 2.42, meaning that investors remain in moderate profit but are not at excessive risk levels, with the market capable of sustaining continuous growth. Selling pressure appears to be restrained for the time being since the MVRV levels have yet to reach the euphoria mark (3.5).
Therefore, investors may choose to hold onto their assets rather than cash out. This condition supports the ongoing upward trend, provided no major shocks or breakdowns occur at the current support levels.
Scarcity Skyrockets as the S2F Ratio Soars Post-Halving
The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio has skyrocketed to 669.72 subsequent to the halving. High S2F values are typically indicative of long-term value growth, especially when demand surges in conjunction with supply constraints. Consequently, the bullish outlook gains strength.
Historically, post-halving cycles have coincided with major price rallies owing to the supply shock. This recent spike mirrors previous setups before past breakouts, implying that long-term investors might view the current prices as undervalued based on future supply dynamics.
Be Wary, But Not Alarmed: NVT Ratio Check
Bitcoin's NVT Ratio currently stands at 380.12—among the year's highest readings. High NVT values often indicate overvaluation when network activity slows. However, during the early stages of a rally, these patterns can manifest as well, so while caution is advisable, there's no reason for immediate panic.
The Future of BTC: Holds, Whales Control
Retail traders' waning enthusiasm contrasts with persistent whale activity and exchange outflows, suggesting a bullish scenario. Scarcity metrics continue to soar, while profit levels remain tolerable. With support at $93K holding strong, Bitcoin is poised for its next big move—an attempt at another breakout, if data continues to favor the whales.
- The accumulation of Bitcoin (BTC) by large holders, or whales, has increased by 0.61% over the past six weeks, while smaller wallets have shed 0.60% of their total assets, a trend that historically indicates a potential price rally.
- Despite the recent surge in BTC value, with a focus on the critical support level at $93,198, the current phase could be a strategic accumulation zone, as shown by the strong conviction demonstrated by exchange flows.
- Bitcoin's MVRV Z-score is 2.42, indicating that investors are in a moderate profit position without being at excessive risk levels, which lends weight to the bullish case as selling pressure appears to be restrained.
- The Stock-to-Flow (S2F) ratio has risen to 669.72 after the halving, suggesting long-term value growth due to increased demand and diminished supply, which strengthens the bullish outlook.
- Despite a high NVT Ratio of 380.12 (among the year's highest readings), indicating potential overvaluation, cautious optimism is advised rather than immediate panic, as these patterns can manifest during the early stages of a rally.
- The contrast between waning retail enthusiasm and persistent whale activity, coupled with the rising scarcity metrics and tolerable profit levels, suggests a bullish scenario for Bitcoin, with the $93K support holding strong and the potential for another breakout if data continues to favor the whales.
