Potential Version of XEC Contributing to 'Tacit' COVID-19 Increase in December 2024
Appears as though another end-of-year COVID-19 increase is occurring, although it's receiving less attention compared to previous surges. This current upsurge has been dubbed "the silent" COVID-19 surge. Despite the apparent quietness, it's crucial not to underestimate the situation and disregard proper safety measures, as failing to do so could leave you susceptible to contracting COVID, whether it's in its short or long-term forms.
XEC Variant Leads the Way in COVID-19 Surge
It's fairly expectable that the colder and drier climate is bringing about a surge during this time of year, as it has done each year since 2020. The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 continues to do what it does best - mutate, resulting in numerous variants. At the forefront of this mutation spree is the XEC variant of SARS-CoV-2. Based on estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the XEC variant accounted for around 45% of SARS-CoV-2 infections from December 8 to December 21. The KP.3.1.1 variant came in second at 24%, followed by LP.8.1 at 8%. None of the other variants from the FLiRT family descendants made up more than 5% of the total.
Wastewater Surveillance Suggests COVID-19 Surge
The most obvious indication of a COVID surge presently is through the examination of wastewater, which involves testing samples of sewage for the virus. A CDC map of the U.S. demonstrated that between December 8-14, wastewater viral activity of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples was recorded as "high" or "very high" in 21 states. This follows several states that remained at moderate-to-low levels throughout much of the fall.
Although wastewater surveillance can be somewhat enlightening, its accuracy depends on where and how often samples are collected. A low measurement of SARS-CoV-2 activity does not necessarily signify that the virus isn't spreading extensively within the human population. There can be a considerable delay between people contracting the virus and its detection in wastewater. Moreover, relying on a single measure should be avoided, just like how one should not rely solely on height in a dating profile.
Insufficient Comprehensive and Proactive Surveillance Data Hinders COVID-19 Surge Detection
Determining when and where there is a COVID surge has become significantly more difficult due to the current situation. If one visits the CDC COVID Data Tracker, the first information that comes up are four measurements. The first is the test positivity rate, which stands at 5.6% for the week ending December 14, 2024, representing an increase from the 5.1% from the previous week. This value may not hold as much accuracy as it once did due to fewer tests being carried out and reported since 2020. Additionally, the data is two weeks old, which makes it less up-to-date.
The other three measurements listed are:
- The percentage of all emergency room visits that received a COVID-19 diagnosis: This was 0.7% for the week ending December 14, the same as the week prior. It's unclear if people visiting the ER are getting tested for COVID these days. Moreover, ER data has always been an after-the-surge-has-already-occurred measurement.
- The number of hospitalizations per 100,000 people in the population: This was 1.6 for the week ending November 30, down from 1.7 the week prior. But the week ending November 30 is even more outdated than the week ending December 14. Hospitalization data faces the same weaknesses as ER data.
- The percentage of all deaths that were due to COVID-19: This was 1.1% for the week ending December 14, up from 0.8% the week prior. Like the other two measurements, this is also an after-the-surge-has-already-occurred measurement.
Moreover, these three measurements function like outdated shoulder pads, skinny jeans, and overly large logos - slightly outdated as primary measures. The nature of COVID has evolved since the early pandemic days. As more and more individuals have had increased exposure to the spike protein via vaccination and infection, people's immune systems become better equipped to manage SARS-CoV-2. While the SARS-CoV-2 is still a significant threat, a SARS-CoV-2 infection still carries the risk of long Covid. The exact risk is not known due to limited monitoring of long Covid cases in the U.S.
You've likely come across the term "silent but deadly," and although the risk of death from COVID-19 has decreased since the initial pandemic days, it's still a possibility, especially if your immune system isn't at its best.
Navigating the Silent COVID-19 Resurgence
Even though COVID-19 might not be the hot topic it once was, it's crucial to remember that it's still a threat. Sadly, many people seem to have forgotten the lessons we learned during the pandemic. Here are some crucial reminders:
- Regular and thorough hand washing: Remember, you need to scrub your hands with soap for at least 20 seconds, which is the same length as the chorus in the song "I Touch Myself." This isn't just important for battling SARS-CoV-2, but also for protecting yourself against other diseases, like the flu.
- Staying home when you’re sick: No, you're not that indispensable for work or that party. And you certainly don't want to spread your illness to others.
- Maintaining a safe distance during social interactions: If that coughing stranger insists on getting close to discuss psychedelics, crypto, or anything else, keep your distance.
- Ensuring proper ventilation in enclosed spaces: This can be achieved by opening windows, using air purifiers, or installing HEPA filters to remove harmful particles from the air.
- Wear a mask in higher-risk situations such as crowded indoor locations: Despite the political controversies surrounding face masks, N95 masks are designed to block virus particles and have been proven effective in reducing transmission risks.
- Updating your COVID-19 vaccination: Vaccine protection tends to weaken after four to six months. Plus, the vaccines from previous years only targeted earlier versions of the virus.
The silent COVID-19 resurgence in 2024 might not be getting much attention from our political leaders. But as history has shown, just because politicians don’t talk about something, it doesn’t mean it isn’t a problem.
The XEC variant, a descendant of SARS-CoV-2, has been identified as the predominant strain during this current "silent" COVID-19 surge, accounting for nearly half of all infections between December 8 and December 21.
Despite the decrease in attention compared to previous surges, wastewater surveillance is suggesting a significant COVID-19 surge, with 21 states in the U.S. recording "high" or "very high" viral activity of SARS-CoV-2 in wastewater samples between December 8-14.
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) COVID Data Tracker shows an increase in the test positivity rate, but the data lacks accuracy due to fewer tests being carried out and reported, and the age of the data. Additionally, there are limitations in using hospitalization and death rates as primary measures, as they often reflect after-the-surge-has-already-occurred situations.
Long Covid, the long-term effects of COVID-19, still poses a risk, even as the risk of death has decreased since the initial pandemic days. Limited monitoring of long Covid cases in the U.S. means the exact risk is not fully understood.
Navigating the "silent" COVID-19 resurgence requires adhering to safety measures such as regular hand washing, staying home when sick, maintaining distance during social interactions, ensuring proper ventilation, wearing masks in high-risk situations, and updating COVID-19 vaccinations.
