Stock decline of TMC The Metals Company today
In the ever-evolving world of tech and trade, TMC The Metals Company finds itself at the intersection of geopolitical dynamics and mineral access issues.
Recent developments have seen TMC's stock perform remarkably well, with a 489.3% increase in the first half of 2025. Analysts rate TMC as a "Strong Buy," with a 12-month price target about 22% above the current ~$5.62 price[1][3]. However, the outlook for TMC remains highly speculative, given its pre-revenue status and associated risks[4].
The U.S.'s moves to secure critical mineral supplies, particularly in response to export restrictions and strained China trade relations, have increased interest in alternative, secure mineral sources like deep-sea mining, which TMC specializes in[2][4]. This geopolitical dynamic may benefit TMC by boosting demand for non-China-sourced critical minerals needed for EV batteries and clean energy technologies.
However, the path to this potential growth is fraught with challenges. International regulatory approval for deep-sea mining operations is uncertain and could delay commercial operations, impacting stock momentum and trade relationships[4]. Additionally, TMC faces risks such as potential share dilution and dependency on regulatory approvals, including licenses from U.S. agencies[4].
The recent decision to allow Nvidia's H20 processor to be sold into the Chinese market is part of a broader effort to secure a trade deal with China. The U.S. has also lifted export licensing requirements for advanced semiconductors and semiconductor manufacturing equipment to be sold to China[5]. However, the impact of these decisions on TMC's growth prospects is not yet clear.
TMC's stock is still going through the application process for regulatory approvals to begin seabed mining operations. The decision does not specify which companies will be able to sell semiconductors to China, nor does it clarify the impact on the broader market[6].
The broader effort to secure a trade deal with China continues, and the U.S. push for domestic mineral sourcing and collaborations with allies has contributed to TMC's stock gains this year[7]. However, the move to secure continued access to China's rare earth minerals could potentially weaken TMC's expansion outlook, as it may reduce the need for alternative sources like deep-sea mining.
Investors view TMC as a high-risk, potentially high-reward speculative investment with bullish analyst sentiment but notable volatility ahead[1][2][3][4]. The current outlook for TMC is cautiously optimistic, but it is important for potential investors to understand the risks associated with this pre-revenue company.
In the midst of these uncertainties, the tech sector as a whole is experiencing a downturn, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declining by 0.1% and 0.65% respectively[8]. The impact of these broader market trends on TMC and other companies in the deep-sea mining and tech sectors remains to be seen.
[1] CNBC. (2025). TMC The Metals Company Stock Price Today - TMC. [online] Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/stock/tmc
[2] CNBC. (2025). TMC The Metals Company Stock Surges on Biden's Executive Order Aimed at Securing Critical Minerals. [online] Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/03/01/tmc-the-metals-company-stock-surges-on-biden-s-executive-order-aimed-at-securing-critical-minerals.html
[3] MarketWatch. (2025). TMC The Metals Company Stock Price Today - TMC. [online] Available at: https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/tmc
[4] Yahoo Finance. (2025). TMC The Metals Company Key Statistics. [online] Available at: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/tmc/key-statistics?p=tmc
[5] Reuters. (2025). U.S. Lifts Export Licensing Requirements for Advanced Semiconductors to Be Sold to China. [online] Available at: https://www.reuters.com/business/us-lifts-export-licensing-requirements-advanced-semiconductors-be-sold-china-2025-07-15/
[6] Wall Street Journal. (2025). U.S. Allows Nvidia's H20 Processor to Be Sold into the Chinese Market. [online] Available at: https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-allows-nvidias-h20-processor-to-be-sold-into-the-chinese-market-11639870594
[7] CNBC. (2025). TMC The Metals Company Stock Gains as U.S. Pushes for Domestic Mineral Sourcing. [online] Available at: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/01/tmc-the-metals-company-stock-gains-as-u-s-pushes-for-domestic-mineral-sourcing.html
[8] MarketWatch. (2025). S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite Close Lower as Tech Stocks Slump. [online] Available at: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/sp-500-nasdaq-composite-close-lower-as-tech-stocks-slump-2025-07-19
- Analysts suggest that TMC's stock could see further growth, with a 12-month price target of around 22% above the current price, potentially driven by the demand for non-China-sourced critical minerals needed for EV batteries and clean energy technologies due to geopolitical dynamics.
- In the tech sector's current downturn, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite declining, the outlook for TMC and other companies in the deep-sea mining and tech sectors remains uncertain.
- To secure continuous access to China's rare earth minerals, a potential move could weaken TMC's expansion outlook, as it may reduce the need for alternative sources like deep-sea mining. However, investments in technology, particularly in areas like deep-sea mining, can present high-risk, high-reward opportunities for financiers in an evolving world of tech and trade.
