Understand the Delay Estimation: Methodology Proposed by Ethan Mollick
Let's clear up the first thing first - the term 'wait calculation' stems from an essay penned by MIT graduate and author Ethan Mollick, published early this year. I'm referencing this essay as I read a new post by the same author on AI capabilities as we approach 2025.
I'll kick things off with the original post text:
"Claude, change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, conn a ship, design a building, write a sonnet, balance accounts, build a wall, set a bone, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, analyze a new problem, pitch manure, program a computer, cook a tasty meal, fight efficiently, die gallantly. ... Do them in order, do not skip any."
Let me elaborate a bit.
The Mathematics of Patience: Delaying for Progress
In Mollick's January 2024 blog post, he brought up the notion through a straightforward question:
If your journey to a distant space destination takes 12,000 years with present-day technology - do you embark on the journey, or wait for a couple of hundred years on Earth for the technology to evolve?
This thought reminds me of the "Three Body Problem" series by Cixin Liu, which gained massive popularity in America due to its Chinese sci-fi author perspective.
In the books, when humans attempt to travel to parts of the universe teeming with alien life, they dehydrate their bodies and enter a temporary, yet lengthy, hibernation, to rebuild at their destination.
A character in the books proposes an evolutionary analogy (not an exact quote):
"Once a fish leaves the water, it ceases to be a fish. When a human ventures into outer space, they cease to be human."
This brief commentary on evolution highlights the quest for surpassing past limitations. This is the stage we've reached with AI, in a way.
For instance, if future generations are fitted with high-tech cyborg equipment, enhancing their senses and abilities, are they still fully human?
Mollick discusses the argument that a significant number of tasks we performed throughout the 20th century have become obsolete in today's context.
The Demise of Traditional Work
This argument isn't limited to job displacement by robots. It extends to all the work, from the 1980s to the 2010s, which AI will likely perform in the future.
Consider a scenario where you're constructing a unique physical therapy program, studying cancer cures, or conceptualizing media campaigns, or engaging in any cognitive work to advance an industry. Mollick argues that you could've just waited and used present-day technology to achieve the same results more quickly, ultimately surpassing our current milestones.
"Over the past decade, I've focused on creating games to help people learn and innovate," he writes. “And a significant portion of that work was transformed, compressed, and sped up following the release of ChatGPT and its successors last year. Despite the valued research and impactful teaching experiences of my teams, had we anticipated AI's evolution, we could have waited."
However, he emphasizes that such cognitive work was necessary to develop the cutting-edge technologies themselves.
In conclusion, it might turn out to be a catch 22 situation. But there's another important perspective to consider in this discussion ...
AI and Advancements in Physical and Cognitive Tasks
Many people express uncertainty or fear when AI is mentioned, reassuring themselves that although AI is an exceptional thinker, it's not as skilled at physical tasks yet.
Interestingly, AI robots are already capable of performing various physical tasks such as pitching manure or changing a diaper, as Mollick already pointed out.
Robot dexterity is advancing rapidly, paralleling the growth in AI cognition. We're not seeing these robots in daily life at the moment, but we may see them making an appearance greatly sooner than expected - in months, not years.
As we welcome the new year, we'll take a breather and celebrate, but the month of January will bring with it an avalanche of technological advancements as companies and innovators leverage AI's capabilities.
In essence, AI offers limitless possibilities.
In light of the rapid advancements in AI, the question arises: Will big money shift towards digital transformation in various industries to harness the full potential of energy-efficient and intelligent machines, such as robots capable of physical tasks like changing a diaper or pitching manure?
Furthermore, as AI becomes increasingly capable, it may render certain cognitive tasks obsolete, prompting the need for individuals and organizations to adapt and innovate in order to stay relevant and compete effectively in the new digital landscape.
