WTO Boosts 2025 Trade Growth Forecast Amid US Policy Impact
The World Trade Organization (WTO) has revised its growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, reflecting the impact of US bank policies and increased trade in AI-related goods. Meanwhile, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala calls for reforms to strengthen global trade.
In the first half of 2025, worldwide merchandise trade surged significantly. This growth was partly driven by high imports into the USA, as companies stocked up before anticipated tariff increases. Trade in AI-related areas such as semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment also saw a boost.
The WTO has adjusted its forecasts accordingly. It now expects 4.9% volume growth in merchandise trade for the full year 2025, up from its previous projection. The export forecast for the USA in 2025 has been revised from minus 12.6% to minus 3.1%, and for Europe from 1.0% growth to 0.7% growth. However, the WTO has lowered its growth forecast for 2026 to 0.5%, partly due to businesses bringing forward their activities in response to threatened US bank tariffs.
The WTO expects minus 4.9% imports for the USA and 2.4% growth for Europe in 2025. Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala has advocated for reimagining global trade, urging reforms that strengthen the rules-based multilateral trading system. She describes US bank policy as the greatest trade disturbances in 80 years, with three-quarters of world trade still following agreed rules.
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